Shoppers across the country are approaching the holiday season with affordability firmly on their minds, navigating a complex economic landscape by carefully seeking out ways to maximize value, according to a comprehensive new report released by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.
Despite persistent concerns over household budgets and the rising cost of everyday goods, Halloween spending is once again projected to shatter previous benchmarks, topping last year’s record-breaking $13.1 billion. However, the psychological approach of the modern consumer has shifted notably. While total expenditures continue to climb year after year, shoppers are adopting an increasingly strategic, value-driven mindset to manage their seasonal purchases.
Dive Brief: Strategic Shopping Shapes the Season
Though Halloween shoppers expect to spend more than they did in previous years, an increasing number of consumers are snapping up their holiday items significantly earlier than in the past. While a segment of the shopping public is naturally enticed by early promotional deals and retailer incentives, a substantial portion of early birds are driven by a more urgent motivation: they are spooked by high prices and determined to outsmart inflation.
Market research indicates that nearly half, or 49%, of consumers surveyed stated they planned to start shopping for Halloween in September or even earlier. Among this proactive group of early shoppers, 23% explicitly stated that they made their Halloween purchases ahead of schedule specifically to stretch their household budgets. Meanwhile, an additional 21% noted that they wanted to take advantage of early-season affordable prices, discounts, and retail promotions before inventory dynamics shifted.
"Consumers continue to make Halloween a spending priority, but they are also approaching the season with affordability in mind," said Allison Zeller, the National Retail Federation’s vice president of industry and consumer insights, in an official statement addressing the findings. "For more than two decades, NRF’s Halloween survey has tracked how consumers celebrate the holiday, and this year’s results show that shoppers are being thoughtful and strategic, looking for ways to maximize value throughout the season."
Dive Insight: The Role of AI and Seasonal Shifts
Beyond early purchasing habits, consumer behavior this season is also being shaped by technological integration and changing environmental factors. Artificial intelligence is becoming increasingly common in the modern retail journey, transforming how shoppers plan their festivities from conception to execution.
Phil Rist, executive vice president of strategy at Prosper Insights & Analytics, highlighted the growing influence of digital tools in consumer preparation. According to the survey data, the top uses for artificial intelligence during this Halloween season include brainstorming and coming up with creative ideas, cited by 34% of respondents, as well as asking for product recommendations or inspiration during preliminary product research, noted by 32% of consumers.
"As consumers prepare for Halloween, many are using these tools to brainstorm costumes and decorating themes, explore production options, and find inspiration that helps bring their celebrations to life," Rist explained, pointing to a broader trend of technology-assisted shopping that extends far beyond traditional search engines and social media platforms.
At the same time, traditional seasonal catalysts continue to play a powerful role in driving consumer sentiment and retail foot traffic. Cool fall weather is acting as a natural trigger, catalyzing consumers to officially transition their mindset and wallets toward the autumn season. Approximately four in ten, or 42%, of shoppers reported that they are celebrating the declining temperatures by kicking off their Halloween shopping, according to the NRF report released on September 1.
This forward-leaning financial strategy is not confined to Halloween alone. The data reveals that the urgency to get ahead of seasonal expenses is part of a broader consumer shift impacting the entire retail calendar. More than half, or 54%, of consumers surveyed indicated they are already shopping for the winter holidays well before the arrival of November, utilizing the exact same strategy of spreading out purchases over time to extend their budgets and alleviate end-of-year financial pressure.
