The fall auction season is officially upon us, though in the fast-moving world of horology, it arguably started even earlier following a remarkably strong showing by Sotheby’s in Hong Kong. During that event, a rare and unique white-gold Cartier Cheich—a timepiece that had quietly traded hands among private dealers and collectors for years at significantly lower sums—shattered expectations by fetching a staggering $3.4 million. In doing so, it established a dual record, becoming both the most expensive Cartier wristwatch ever sold and the most expensive quartz watch in history.
Weeks later, trying to decipher what such monumental results mean for the broader market leaves many observers drawing a blank. Making sense of pricing structures, whether at primary retail or secondary auction, has grown increasingly complicated. As the industry dives deeper into the autumn calendar, the traditional predictability of valuations feels more elusive than ever.
What The Heck Is Going On With The Market?
As the bulk of the fall auctions gets underway, forecasting where closing prices will land has become an exercise in uncertainty. Most market prognosticators would agree that valuations for blue-chip independents like F.P. Journe and A. Lange & Söhne must be nearing the absolute height of their respective bubbles. Yet, contradictory data points continually emerge. Over breakfast recently, a conversation turned to a historically important watch from a traditional, established brand that had been severely underpriced a decade ago. Today, that same piece is commanding figures well into the seven-figure range. Some market movements defy simple logic, while others leave industry insiders scratching their heads.
This volatility has sparked lively debates across newsletters and blogs, notably between platforms like Langepedia and prominent dealer Alfredo Paramico. The discussions center on whether the surging market for A. Lange & Söhne is rooted in tangible historical data regarding genuine rarity, or if buyers are simply being swept up by aggressive marketing, modern hype, and curious bidding patterns designed to defend valuations that dealers have heavily invested in. When an A. Lange & Söhne Tourbillon Pour le Mérite lists for over $1 million—even if it is not moving instantaneously—after being nearly unsellable at $400,000 just two years ago, it naturally raises eyebrows. Similar questions surround vintage accessories, such as Wellendorf bracelets, which transitioned from nearly impossible to source to readily available for hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Similar superlatives and pricing dynamics have impacted F.P. Journe. A high-profile claim regarding a "possibly first" pre-Souscription Resonance ultimately required clarification over semantics—proving not to be the first delivered, but perhaps the first manufactured—prompting a swift correction from the maker. Meanwhile, remarkable mother-of-pearl dial pieces offered at Sotheby’s failed to reach expected heights, with specialists later noting hairline cracks on the delicate dials that led some dealers to label the winning bids as overpays.
In this climate, the old adage caveat emptor—let the buyer beware—applies more than ever. Collectors are advised to pay what a watch is genuinely worth to them personally, rather than chasing a momentum-driven market consensus. Buying a watch because you love it leaves you with a treasured companion; buying purely as an investment hoping for the market to skyrocket can be a perilous gamble. Nevertheless, despite the macroeconomic and market confusion, several compelling sales are on the horizon, featuring pieces well worth acquiring if they genuinely move the collector.
Marteau & Co. Is Back With “The Encore,” Open for Bidding Oct. 8 to 15
Contemporary watch auctions generally follow one of two philosophies: overwhelming buyers with massive catalogs containing hundreds of lots, or curating a tightly edited selection of 100 to 150 standout pieces that fill specific gaps. Marteau & Co. is taking a radically different approach with "The Encore," presenting an intensely curated catalog of roughly 40 watches where nearly every single lot possesses enough historical and mechanical significance to warrant a standalone feature story.
Standing out immediately in this compact lineup is a complete, matching steel set of five F.P. Journe watches, offered alongside their original presentation box, though cleverly parted out into individual lots. This marks the first time set number 37 has ever appeared at auction, arriving precisely as the market shows signs of upward momentum. For those unfamiliar with this ultra-rare release, the collection comprises 38-millimeter steel iterations of Journe’s foundational masterpieces: the Tourbillon Souverain, the Sonnerie Souverain’s stablemate the Resonance, the Octa Calendrier, the Réserve de Marche, and the Chronomètre Souverain, all united by matching gold dials. A complete set previously commanded roughly $3 million, while a single Resonance was once offered privately for $650,000, both figures recorded before the most recent market shifts.
Independent watchmaking is heavily represented throughout the rest of Marteau’s catalog. Sylvain Pinaud has been generating substantial industry momentum, particularly following the rapid sell-out of his latest tourbillon creations. Naturally, his Piece Unique Origine in rose gold commands attention, carrying a pre-sale estimate between CHF 80,000 and CHF 160,000. Another exciting lot is Yosuke Sekiguchi’s unique Primevere. The Japanese-born, Switzerland-based artisan has previously drawn critical acclaim for his meticulous craftsmanship, positioning him as a watchmaker to watch as collector interest broadens beyond the most household indie names.
The auction will also test the auction block performance of Ludovic Ballouard’s Half Time and Marco Lang’s Zweigesicht-1. While Ballouard is well-known among independent collectors primarily for his signature Upside Down model, the Half Time offers a fresh mechanical complication that should perform strongly. Meanwhile, Marco Lang’s standalone brand operates independently of Lang & Heyne, the renowned firm he co-founded in 2001 before departing in 2019. The Zweigesicht-1 represents the first time one of his independent creations has appeared at public auction, backed by an eye-catching CHF 200,000 to 400,000 estimate that underscores his exceptional hand-finishing and watchmaking philosophy.
More accessible pieces are also sprinkled throughout the catalogue, though several are expected to vastly exceed their conservative estimates. Works by self-taught watchmakers Reuben Schoots and Ondrej Berkus showcase wildly distinct, avant-garde design aesthetics. A Habring2 Five Minute Repeater offers a rare skeletonized dial layout that departs significantly from the brand’s traditional aesthetic language, while a J.N. Shapiro piece is anticipated to push well past its CHF 16,000 high estimate. Early examples like Michiel Holthinrich’s Ornament and select pieces from Kurono Tokyo round out the diverse lineup.
For collectors seeking even more exclusivity, Marteau has announced a subsequent October sale titled "The Blue Print," highlighted by a unique Philippe Dufour Simplicity featuring an aventurine dial that was previously earmarked for charitable initiatives.
Antiquorum is Back in the New York Groove
More than a decade has passed since Antiquorum, the pioneer of dedicated watch-only auctions, hosted a live auction event in New York City. While Geneva remains the undisputed global capital for major watch sales, the historic auction house is staging a notable return to Manhattan with an October 18 sale hosted at The Ned Nomad. Comprising 157 lots, the catalog is significantly leaner than the massive 600-lot marathons typically seen in Switzerland, offering a focused and digestible selection for attendees.
Interestingly, the sale opens with historical books and ephemera rather than an immediate splash of iconic wristwatches. Once past the introductory literature, however, the catalog dives straight into heavy-hitting vintage territory with a Comex Submariner and a Tiffany-signed 14-karat yellow gold Rolex Daytona reference 6241. Given that a 14-karat gold case aligns naturally with historical U.S. market distribution by authorized retailers, the double-signature holds logical context, though today’s collectors approach dual-signed dials with heightened scrutiny.
Patek Philippe’s reference 96 has experienced a major resurgence in popularity over recent years, prompting Antiquorum to feature a potentially unique example in the heart of collector culture. While standard variants may appear understated compared to steel long-signature or black-dialed sport models, research from scholar Eric Tortella confirms that this particular piece hails from an early 1932 production run—its inaugural year. However, an intriguing asterisk remains: the factory archive extracts do not explicitly record this specific dial configuration. Because Patek Philippe’s historical archive notations can occasionally leave unique configurations unrecorded, determining the watch’s absolute factory provenance will likely depend on individual buyer conviction.
Later in the catalog, a pair of special-order Cartier Crash wristwatches is expected to generate intense bidding activity. An execution featuring a grey fumé dial is particularly unusual, with both pieces carrying pre-sale estimates between $400,000 and $600,000, supported by the ongoing market dominance of vintage and neo-vintage Cartier. Just a few lots away lies a Bueche-Girod bearing a striking resemblance to a Cartier Maxi Oval. Once remarkably affordable, these pieces now command estimates between $15,000 and $30,000.
The latter half of the sale shifts toward modern complications, contemporary independent watchmaking, and jeweled statement pieces, including a Patek Philippe reference 5102 Celestial and a rainbow-set H. Moser & Cie. Streamliner Tourbillon—listed playfully in catalog materials under a slightly modified French translation of the founder’s name.
Toward the final stretch of the auction, serious heavyweights emerge, including an F.P. Journe Vagabondage II starting at $500,000 and a Black Label Tourbillon Vertical starting at $800,000. Yet the lot most likely to captivate traditional purists is an immaculate Vacheron Constantin reference 30020 Les Complications. Dating back to 1994, an era when Maisons routinely crafted highly balanced, mechanically dense masterpieces within wearable 37-millimeter platinum cases, this timepiece integrates a perpetual calendar, a minute repeater, and graceful teardrop lugs. Estimated conservatively between $200,000 and $400,000, it offers exceptional value compared to equivalent grand complications bearing a Patek Philippe signature—demonstrating the exact type of historic horological depth where Antiquorum continues to excel.
