Athletic footwear and apparel brand On is pushing forward with ambitious plans to achieve high-teens sales growth over the next three years, banking heavily on a high-profile entry into the global soccer market and strategic cultural partnerships. However, Wall Street analysts are expressing caution, questioning whether the company’s aggressive targets are realistic amid a broader deceleration in sales momentum and an increasingly challenging retail landscape.
During the company’s investor day presentation, executives outlined a series of robust growth initiatives for the upcoming three-year period. These plans include a massive $1 billion share buyback program and projections that net sales will climb to an impressive 5.6 billion Swiss francs, equivalent to approximately $6.8 billion. Company leadership remains confident that a combination of science-based product innovation, strategic marketing collaborations, and diversification into new athletic categories will easily propel the brand through its next phase of expansion.
Yet, financial analysts tracking the brand’s trajectory are not entirely convinced by the optimistic outlook. A team of analysts at Jefferies, led by Randal Konik, highlighted a noticeable cooling in the company’s growth rate in a note published Tuesday. According to Jefferies, On’s year-over-year sales growth has decelerated significantly from 36% down to 13% over the course of the past six quarters. Furthermore, the brand is currently anticipating its third-quarter constant currency growth to land at around 17%.
Konik and his team argued that establishing such lofty, long-term targets against a backdrop of slowing momentum places an undue burden on the brand. They suggested that the current climate tests the credibility of management’s guidance rather than simply illustrating a visionary roadmap. Jefferies’ internal forecasts project a much more conservative growth rate of just 3% for On between 2026 and 2027, alongside a 2027 EBITDA margin of 14.8%, which falls roughly 700 basis points short of the company’s stated goals for 2029.
To bridge that substantial gap, Konik noted that the company’s underlying business model would need to pivot and accelerate almost immediately within a highly promotional United States market, and it would have to do so without relying heavily on markdown strategies or expensive paid internet traffic to drive consumer demand. Expressing a preference for more attainable projections, Konik added that analysts would rather see a beatable bar set by management than a bold one that risks missing expectations.
Needham analyst Tom Nikic shared a similar sentiment in a note published on Friday, predicting that On would establish a compound annual growth rate in the low teens over the next three years while cautioning investors to maintain skepticism toward overly bullish corporate forecasts. Nikic pointed out that the external macroeconomic and retail environments have grown considerably more difficult, severely impacting athletic industry fundamentals and dampening investor sentiment across the board.
Despite these broader industry headwinds, Nikic praised On for taking disciplined strategic actions to protect its long-term brand equity. Specifically, he noted that the company has smartly reined in its wholesale sell-in figures and actively avoided the pervasive discounting practices that have plagued many of its competitors within the crowded athletic footwear and apparel space.
During the investor day presentations, On executives doubled down on the core pillars of their strategy, emphasizing the brand’s heavy reliance on scientific innovation and close cooperative efforts with high-profile brand partners. Among those mentioned were award-winning actor and cultural icon Zendaya, as well as elite long-distance runner Hellen Obiri, both of whom have helped elevate the brand’s visibility and lifestyle appeal in key global markets.
Perhaps the most ambitious component of On’s growth strategy is its imminent entry into the soccer category, a move designed to cement its credibility in mainstream team sports. As part of this push, the brand successfully lured superstar French forward Kylian Mbappé away from long-time industry titan Nike, a major coup that signals On’s serious intentions to compete at the highest levels of global football.
On’s Chief Design Officer, Thilo Brunner, revealed during the event that the internet is already buzzing with anticipation and speculation, with digital creators and fans circulating artificial intelligence-generated concepts of what On’s upcoming soccer cleats might look like. According to Brunner, public renderings have gotten "pretty much right," which he interprets as a strong validation that On has successfully established a distinct and recognizable design language that consumers instantly associate with the brand.
To ensure that the new product line meets the rigorous performance demands of professional athletes, the On team is collaborating closely with soccer icons Kylian Mbappé, Thierry Henry, and Sydney Schertenleib. Together, they are working to develop innovative products tailored specifically for the new category that deliver exceptional on-field performance while maintaining a distinct aesthetic identity.
At the same time, company leadership anticipates that this high-profile sports expansion will yield broader commercial benefits. Chief Marketing Officer Alex Griffin noted that entering soccer will generate powerful knock-on effects, providing increased visibility and cross-category appeal that will naturally funnel consumer interest into other lucrative divisions, such as the brand’s expanding lifestyle footwear and apparel collections.
